Very stimulating piece. Hope you are able to repeat this (multiple times) in other media (I forecast that not all big-heads/influencers read Economic Affairs).
I note that Tetlock argued the average economic expert's predictions were no better than a dart throwing chimp, but some of us are, of course, better than average!
Literally just received reply from BBC Complaints about their weather forecasts and my suggestion they need to show some humility and own up when they get it wrong. BBC avoided answering and sent me bumf on how they forecast! The bigger point is that I would like to see more experts being contrite.
My own guess is that so called AI systems will not do very well at tasks that many people expected they would be good at, but that the massively decentralized innovation machine that is the market economy will throw up lots of fantastic applications that no one anticipated.
Very stimulating piece. Hope you are able to repeat this (multiple times) in other media (I forecast that not all big-heads/influencers read Economic Affairs).
I note that Tetlock argued the average economic expert's predictions were no better than a dart throwing chimp, but some of us are, of course, better than average!
Literally just received reply from BBC Complaints about their weather forecasts and my suggestion they need to show some humility and own up when they get it wrong. BBC avoided answering and sent me bumf on how they forecast! The bigger point is that I would like to see more experts being contrite.
Will technology of gene manipulation produce a chimpanzee darts champion?
“Radical Uncertainty “ by Mervyn King and John Kay excellent on unpredictability problems including economics. Roger Brookhouse
My own guess is that so called AI systems will not do very well at tasks that many people expected they would be good at, but that the massively decentralized innovation machine that is the market economy will throw up lots of fantastic applications that no one anticipated.