The midterms were disastrous for the Republicans.
On 3 November, Americans went to the polls for the 2026 midterm elections, which take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. This year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives were contested, alongside 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Voters in 36 states also elected governors. This includes the California gubernatorial race, in which British-born Republican Steve Hilton lost to a Democrat. Hilton’s wife, Rachel Whetstone, happens to be the granddaughter of Antony Fisher, who founded the Institute of Economic Affairs.
The midterms saw some major upsets. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, marking the first time Democrats had won a Senate election in the state in 38 years. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton made history by becoming the first Democrat to win a Senate seat there since 1932. Meanwhile, in Maine, five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins lost to Democrat Troy Jackson after nearly three decades in the Senate.
Democrats have now won control of both the House and the Senate, marking a dramatic reversal of political fortunes and giving the opposition party considerable power to obstruct the president’s legislative agenda.
So, how did the “New Right”, a movement known for its combative online culture, “America First” principles, mass deportations and protectionism, fail to deliver prosperity for the American people at such a scale that the electorate wholeheartedly rejected it the first chance they got? If you ask those of us on the libertarian side of the political aisle, the answer seems obvious. On the campaign trail, President Trump insisted voters pretend he is on the ballot, and voters listened.
Tariffs were one of President Trump’s flagship policies, and he claimed America would see a “golden age” in the economy from the boost to manufacturing. Trump gleefully announced a Minnesota company’s plan to build a $15bn steel mill in Iowa, promising more manufacturing jobs. Instead, total manufacturing employment has fallen by 13,000 since the month before the tariffs were introduced. An NBC News exit poll of midterm voters found that 66 per cent think Trump’s tariff policies have hurt the national economy.
The war in Iran was also deeply unpopular, especially with the MAGA base. In his 2024 victory speech, President Trump made a promise: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” Many people voted for the Republicans because they were tired of American tax dollars being sent to fight in conflicts abroad. Trump and Vance ran on an explicit peace ticket.
What has ensued, of course, is a long and expensive war with Iran, with the cost already exceeding $47bn, according to a Pentagon estimate. Indeed, the NBC News exit poll found that 63 per cent of voters thought that taking military action against Iran was the wrong decision.
Corruption was also a key issue for voters. According to a CNBC survey, 36 per cent of respondents thought that government corruption was the most important issue facing America. Of course, the larger the government gets, the more opportunities there are for corruption.
A total of 15 companies backed by investment firms affiliated with the president’s sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have received about $3.2bn in federal contracts, loans and investments, most after Trump returned to office. It has been reported that the Trump family’s business interests have earned billions since he returned to office.
Much of the administration’s agenda has also centred on the president personally. He renamed the Kennedy Center after himself, among other things. He decided he wanted a 250-foot triumphal arch built in Washington DC, which he later decided would be a “Military Complex” with “large numbers of drones, plus Snipers”.
In his final speech prior to the midterms, Trump spoke primarily about projects in DC, including the White House ballroom project and the reflecting pool (which was drained and refilled after botched attempts to repaint it). It is easy to see why many voters felt the president was out of touch.
There is also the issue of immigration. Trump undoubtedly had a mandate to tackle illegal immigration, having made “mass deportations” a central promise of his 2024 campaign. But support for enforcing immigration laws does not necessarily translate into support for the methods his administration has employed.
The fatal shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis became major flashpoints, particularly after footage of the incidents circulated widely. Polling found that 62 per cent of voters thought the shooting of Pretti was unjustified, while 63 per cent disapproved of the way Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was enforcing immigration laws.
Even within Trump’s own party, there was growing unease. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican ally of the president, called on the administration to recalibrate its approach, arguing that immigration agents needed to remove people without creating the conflict and disruption communities were experiencing.
More than 500 American citizens were arrested by ICE under Trump’s presidency, some of whom were detained and held for days. For Hispanic Americans in particular, many of whom voted for Trump, “immigration policy, deportations, and ICE” were what determined their vote for the Democrats.
So, what can Britain learn from the short life of America’s “New Right”?
Winning an election on a promise to shake up the establishment is one thing; delivering a country that is more prosperous, freer and better governed is quite another. Trump’s New Right promised to put America first, but its economic nationalism has meant tariffs on American consumers, an expensive foreign war and a government increasingly entangled with the president’s own business interests. Its immigration crackdown has also demonstrated that even voters who want stronger borders have limits when it comes to how those policies are enforced, and I’d argue the British have even less tolerance for needless violence.
If British politicians want to offer something genuinely different, they should focus less on importing what critics call Trump’s personality cult and more on the principles that actually make countries prosperous: free trade and individual liberty. Otherwise, they risk discovering that the New Right’s shelf life is considerably shorter than it imagined.
Thank you for having me write for EA! I miss my IEA friends 🫶
There's no real lesson to be learned from the US mid-terms in the UK as it was about Trump's erratic behaviours and appearance of family and cronies corruption. None of that applies here.
By contrast on issues that were on the ballot about stopping trans in women's sports or the billionaires tax the conservative position won out.
Its not the policies that lost, its the people.