About the Discussion
Our first book, The Great Demographic Reversal, warned about problems that would arise when the demographic sweet spot turned sour. We stated that interest rates, both real and nominal, and inflation would then reach a higher-for-longer steady state, and this has occurred. But this demographic development, combined with a number of adverse supply shocks and a political reaction against immigration, has helped to accelerate fiscal deterioration at a much faster pace than we earlier expected. With the need for greater defence expenditure and enhanced worries about climate change, the fiscal position on present policies has become unsustainable. Although technically it would be perfectly feasible to cut public sector expenditures and raise taxation to restore fiscal stability, it would be politically almost impossible to do so in our present democracies.
As a result, fiscal dominance will mean that central banks (through little fault of their own) will be forced to choose a balance between fighting inflation and avoiding fiscal/financial instability, without achieving either objective completely.
About the Speakers
Charles Goodhart
Charles Goodhart’s career has alternated between academia (Cambridge, 1963-65; LSE, 1967/68; again 1985-date), and work in the official sector, mostly in the Bank of England (Department of Economic Affairs, 1965/66; Bank of England, 1968-85; Monetary Policy Committee, 1997-2000). He has been a specialist monetary economist, focussing on policy issues and on financial regulation. Recently he wrote, co-authored with Manoj Pradhan, a book on The Great Demographic Reversal, suggesting that the decades of disinflation and falling interest rates would come to an end. He has now written a sequel to that book describing current monetary and fiscal problems. He had previously authored numerous publications on monetary policy and ‘Goodhart’s Law’.
Manoj Pradhan
Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, an independent research firm based in London, and co-author of “The Great Demographic Reversal” in 2020 and “The Unanchored Central Banker” in 2026 with Charles Goodhart. Manoj was previously Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, where he led the Global Economics team, driving macroeconomic and econometric research into global economic themes and coining the term “the Fragile Five”. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2005 after serving on the faculty of the George Washington University and the State University of New York. He has a PhD in economics from the George Washington University and a Master's in Finance from the London Business School.
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